To combat the gas crisis, Germany offers a new plan for cheap transit

German public transport policy made unexpected global headlines in May, when the country offered travel on all city and regional trains, trams, buses and the metro for just €9 ($9.02) per month from June to August.

Designed to alleviate the energy crisis and the cost-of-living crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the three-month deal proved extremely popular, with 52 million €9 million tickets sold and 20% of those tickets going to people who don't normally use public transport, according to public transport lobby group VDV. As a result of the reduction in car trips, about 1.8 million tons of carbon emissions were saved.

But despite the positive response from ticket buyers, there have always been questions about what will happen after the expiration of the program. The subsidy for the three-month program is estimated to have cost the federal government €2.5 billion, and many expected summer windfall income to be paid for in the long run by a blanket increase in tariffs.

Of course, some fare hikes are reportedly on the way, and the regional transit networks of Stuttgart and Nuremberg are expected to raise rates by 4.9% and 3%, respectively, by the end of the year, although not with a clear link to the consequences of the €9 ticket.

But long-term cheap public transport can still be on the cards: the government is proposing a successor to the €9 initiative as part of an overall crisis relief package. The monthly ticket, which is likely to cost between €49 and €69, could be introduced by the end of 2021. And if passed, this new plan could last a year or longer.

The ticket, proposed by Transport Minister Volker Vissing and covering the same forms of urban and regional transit as its predecessor, is still under development. To be viable, Wissing says Germany's federal states will have to agree to an annual subsidy of 1.5 billion euros from the national government with their own funds — something they haven't yet done. Indeed, reaching an agreement could prove difficult, with some opposition figures noting holes in the plan and others even calling it a "bad joke."

Germany is not the only European country that has adopted cheaper or free travel as a tool to manage the energy crisis. Spain offers passengers free passes to the country's commuter rail systems between 1 September and 31 December. Passengers can also travel for free on the regional rail network, a system with noticeably less coverage and frequency of service than its German counterpart. Elsewhere, Estonia's capital Tallinn, France's Dunkirk, Bohemia's Frydek-Mistek and the entire state of Luxembourg have made their public transport completely free as a permanent measure rather than related to the current crisis. 

However, many other countries, including the UK, have yet to introduce any price cuts or measures to make the use of public transport more affordable.

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The benefits of Germany's latest ticket offer will certainly be narrower. While its suggested cost will make many trips cheap by international standards, rising prices will limit potential beneficiaries of the scheme. People living in and around major cities will benefit the most. Residents of Berlin and Hamburg, who currently pay €86 and €71.30 respectively for a monthly intra-zone pass, will see their travel costs reduced. The new ticket will also remain attractive to discount hunters willing to travel across the country on slower regional flights, sacrificing time for money while avoiding the full costs of long-distance services.

Others, however, will miss out. It is important to note that the cost will exceed about 40 euros per month allocated to German recipients of state aid for travel. This means that people receiving benefits will have to find additional funds from other places in their allowance to buy a ticket – funds that due to inflation may simply not exist. Other groups may not find the offer attractive enough to make it worth switching to public transport.

The proposed new ticket, for example, will not offer incentives for residents who live in small towns where shorter distances keep monthly expenses below €49, or for people in many small towns and villages where, regardless of price, the supply of public transport is too scarce to rely on everyday needs. What's more, train and bus fares in Germany are already often cheaper than car rides, so the plan won't necessarily incentivize drivers to switch. Similarly, day-trippers, with whom a €9 ticket has proven particularly popular, will find that existing special excursion fares are often cheaper than the new ticket offered.

While higher fares may represent a sobering post-summer ticket finish, the longer duration of the new plan and cost reductions for the federal government can also be seen as a deepening commitment to making public transportation a more affordable alternative to driving.